The Diplomatic Record 1992-1993 by Allan E. Goodman

Author:Allan E. Goodman [Goodman, Allan E.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: International Relations, Political Science, General
ISBN: 9780429310089
Google: B3nixgEACAAJ
Goodreads: 15306096
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 1994-12-26T00:00:00+00:00

Bush and Saddam: the Penultimate Chapter

The next-to-last episode in the clash between Baghdad's "cheat and retreat" and Washington's "threat and forget" approach to the postwar situation occurred in July 1992. A team of UN chemical weapons inspectors sought access to Baghdad's Agricultural Ministry to obtain proof that Iraq was making chemical weapons, but it was denied entry. While the team camped outside the building in Iraq, the UN Security Council in New York was engrossed in other problems—above all, the deteriorating situation in Yugoslavia.

The standoff in Baghdad continued for three weeks, and by the end of that time, any significant material relating to weapons had been removed from the building. To resolve the confrontation in Iraq, the head of the UN special commission charged with the inspections agreed to Iraqi terms for future inspections. In the future, the teams would not enter ministry buildings, and they would not be headed by members of the wartime coalition. Indeed, the two most serious confrontations had occurred with inspection teams led by Americans.

The Bush administration's embarrassment that Baghdad had succeeded in dictating to the representatives of the seemingly victorious coalition led to a modification of US policy toward Iraq. The administration had previously agreed to receive a delegation of the opposition Iraqi National Congress (INC). The visit had been set for late July. The INC arrived in Washington soon after the unsatisfactory resolution of the Agricultural Ministry crisis, and its visit provided the United States with an opportunity to respond to Saddam's defiance.

Subsequently, the United States, with the support of Britain and France, imposed a "no-fly zone" on southern Iraq. Saddam's offensive against his Shiite opponents in the southern marshes was in full swing, and the no-fly zone would limit Baghdad's use of helicopter gunships. It was also intended that the no-fly zone would be the first step in an effort to document and detail Iraqi atrocities in the south, to prepare the ground for further action. (The US presidential election campaign soon began, however.)

As the election campaign got under way, Baghdad took care not to give President Bush an excuse to attack. Rumors abounded that Bush was planning an "October surprise," a strike on Iraq that would bolster his electoral chances. But, because of the upcoming election, the president refrained from taking action against Iraq, when, in other circumstances, he might have ordered an airstrike.

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